2026 US Open DFS Analysis
Generated: 2026-06-17
1. Goal Recap
Build the optimal 6-player DraftKings Classic Golf DFS lineup for the 2026 US Open at Shinnecock Hills. Salary cap: $50,000. Scoring rewards birdies (+3), eagles (+8), bogey-free rounds (+3 bonus), and finish-position bonuses (1st = +30 pts). Objective: maximize expected fantasy points under cap.
2. Data Coverage & Gaps
Available
- Full 156-player DK salary pool with DK AvgPointsPerGame
- 8 PGA Tour 2026 season stat categories: SG:Approach, SG:Tee-to-Green, SG:Around the Green, Scrambling %, Bogey Avoidance %, Driving Accuracy, SG:Putting, Par 3 Average
- Two expert articles (DK Network, RotoGrinders)
- Shinnecock Hills course profile and 2018 historical benchmarks
Gaps
- No outright odds or win probability model — can’t size by win equity
- No Shinnecock-specific historical performance data per player (only 2018 field-wide benchmarks)
- No 2026 PGA Tour data for 6 LIV players: McIlroy ($12,200), Rahm ($11,500), DeChambeau ($11,000), Hatton ($8,700), Reed ($7,900), Niemann ($7,400)
- No ownership projections — can’t assess field exposure or tournament differentiation
- No injury/withdrawal update as of analysis time
3. Key Signals
Course Profile Demands
Shinnecock Hills (Par 70, only 2 par 5s) shifts the scoring model significantly:
- Eagle opportunities nearly eliminated; birdie streaks harder → bogey-free round bonus (+3) becomes the primary volume scoring lever
- Severe fescue rough → scrambling and bogey avoidance are mandatory traits, not optional
- 2018 benchmark: field scrambling success dropped from 59% → 40%; best scramblers gain the most
- Driving accuracy > distance; wide fairways reward keeping it in play
Shinnecock Composite Scores
Weighted: SG:APP 35% + Scrambling 25% + Bogey Avoidance 20% + Driving Accuracy 10% + T2G 10%
| Player | Salary | APP Rank | Scrambling Rank | Bogey Avoid Rank | Drv Acc Rank | T2G Rank | DK Avg | Composite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Fleetwood | $9,700 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 76.7 | Elite |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $8,900 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 86.4 | Elite |
| Russell Henley | $8,000 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 74.0 | Elite |
| Si Woo Kim | $7,200 | 5 | 43 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 87.9 | Elite |
| Min Woo Lee | $6,900 | 10 | 23 | 51 | 73 | 12 | 78.0 | Strong |
| Jake Knapp | $6,800 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 82 | 21 | 86.9 | Strong |
| Patrick Cantlay | $7,300 | 14 | 25 | 9 | 59 | 10 | 72.2 | Strong |
| Scottie Scheffler | $14,900 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 1 | 103.5 | Elite |
| Cameron Young | $10,500 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 43 | 6 | 85.2 | Strong |
| Maverick McNealy | $6,800 | 18 | 35 | 64 | 126 | 44 | 75.3 | Moderate |
| Chris Gotterup | $8,200 | 9 | 70 | 53 | 145 | 17 | 79.8 | Moderate |
Notable Fades (Poor Shinnecock Profiles)
- Rory McIlroy ($12,200): No 2026 PGA Tour stats; missed 2025 US Open cut; high price with no data support — fade
- Wyndham Clark ($7,800): Only 20% top-10 rate, Scrambling rank 85, Bogey rank 67 — inconsistent despite recent win
- Brooks Koepka ($9,400): Scrambling rank 139 (56.65%) — catastrophically bad for Shinnecock despite US Open pedigree
- Justin Thomas ($8,300): Bogey avoidance rank 135 (17.4% bogey rate) — will leak shots on this course
- Bryson DeChambeau ($11,000): Bomber profile less suited to Shinnecock than Pinehurst; no 2026 PGA Tour data
Value Outliers
- Si Woo Kim ($7,200): Highest DK avg in pool (87.88); SG:APP #5; confirmed by both expert sources; strong driving accuracy keeps him in play
- Jake Knapp ($6,800): SG:APP #4 — same tier as Fitzpatrick. Also SG:Putt #2. $6,800 for top-5 approach play is the single best value in the pool
- Russell Henley ($8,000): #1 scrambling, #2 bogey avoidance, #1 driving accuracy. Built for Shinnecock. Likely underowned due to lack of expert hype
4. Factors Assessment
| Factor | Signal | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Shinnecock approach play requirement | Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick, Si Woo, Knapp, Min Woo all in top 10 | High — structural edge |
| Scrambling / ATG critical | Henley #1, Fleetwood #5, Fitzpatrick #18 — core three | High — rare stat on this course |
| Bogey avoidance | Scheffler #1, Henley #2, Fitzpatrick #3, Si Woo #4, Fleetwood #5 | High — tight scoring at Par 70 |
| Wind (10–20 mph) | Fleetwood (links experience), Lowry — real edge | Medium — favors ball-strikers |
| LIV player uncertainty | 6 players with no 2026 data; Rahm/DeChambeau historical pedigree | Medium-High — real unknowns |
| DK avg reliability | Si Woo (87.88), Knapp (86.94), Fitzpatrick (86.42) all backed by stats | High confidence for these three |
| Historical winner profile | Season win + 4+ top-10s + PGA Championship top-10 | Fitzpatrick + Young fit best |
5. Recommendation
Primary Lineup — “Stat-Optimal Shinnecock”
Total salary: $47,500 / $50,000 cap | Confidence: Medium-High
| # | Player | Salary | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tommy Fleetwood | $9,700 | Top-5 in APP, ATG, Scrambling, Driving Acc, and Bogey Avoidance — best complete Shinnecock profile in mid-high tier; links wind experience |
| 2 | Matt Fitzpatrick | $8,900 | Top-3 APP, Top-6 ATG, 2022 US Open winner at similar course setup; best T2G in pool |
| 3 | Russell Henley | $8,000 | #1 Scrambling, #2 Bogey Avoidance, #1 Driving Accuracy — tailor-made for Shinnecock; likely underowned |
| 4 | Si Woo Kim | $7,200 | #5 SG:APP, #3 T2G, #3 Driving Accuracy, #4 Bogey Avoidance; highest DK avg in pool (87.88); both experts endorse |
| 5 | Min Woo Lee | $6,900 | #10 SG:APP, #21 ATG, #23 Scrambling — elite approach + solid short game at excellent price |
| 6 | Jake Knapp | $6,800 | #4 SG:APP (same tier as Fitzpatrick), #16 Scrambling, #2 SG:Putt — single best salary-to-stats ratio in pool |
$2,500 remaining under cap — deliberate. Forcing spend to reach $50k would require a player with an inferior Shinnecock profile.
Alternate Lineup A — “Scheffler Anchor”
Total: $49,900 | Confidence: Medium
Use if you want the highest ceiling and are comfortable with a compressed value 6th slot.
| Player | Salary |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | $14,900 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $9,700 |
| Russell Henley | $8,000 |
| Si Woo Kim | $7,200 |
| Min Woo Lee | $6,900 |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | $6,100 |
Scheffler is statistically #1 at every key Shinnecock skill but forces a weaker 6th slot (Yellamaraju, APP #30).
Alternate Lineup B — “Cantlay Upgrade”
Total: $48,100
Swap Min Woo Lee → Patrick Cantlay for improved bogey avoidance (rank 9 vs 51).
| Player | Salary |
|---|---|
| Tommy Fleetwood | $9,700 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | $8,900 |
| Russell Henley | $8,000 |
| Si Woo Kim | $7,200 |
| Patrick Cantlay | $7,300 |
| Jake Knapp | $6,800 |
Cantlay: APP #14, Scrambling #25, Bogey Avoidance #9, T2G #10. Trade-off: gives up Min Woo Lee’s #10 APP for better bogey protection.
6. Risks and What to Watch
| Risk | Likelihood | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| LIV player (Rahm/McIlroy/DeChambeau) wins — not in lineup | Medium | High — they’re viable winners with no data |
| Wind randomizes scoring — any player blows up | Medium-High | Medium — partially mitigated by choosing ball-strikers |
| Poa Annua putting variance hurts approach-stat players | Medium | Medium — downweighted in model but still real |
| Henley / Si Woo / Knapp withdraw or miss cut | Low | High — removes cornerstones of value structure |
| High field ownership on Si Woo Kim / Knapp | Medium | Medium — reduces GPP differentiation |
| Gotterup’s home course (NJ) advantage not captured in stats | Low | Low-Medium — real intangible |
7. What Would Change the Decision
- If DeChambeau shows elite form in practice/pro-am: Consider pivoting one value slot to him at $11,000 — he won this event in 2024
- If wind forecast increases (>20 mph): Upgrade Shane Lowry ($7,100) over Min Woo Lee — born links player with bogey avoidance rank 36
- If Henley or Si Woo Kim are injury concerns: Replace with Patrick Cantlay (for Henley) or Wyndham Clark (for Si Woo) — neither is as clean a profile but workable
- If Si Woo Kim ownership exceeds 25–30% in a GPP: Fade him for Jacob Bridgeman ($6,500, APP #13) to create differentiation
- If tournament is shortened due to weather: Bogey-free and all-rounds-under-70 bonuses become unavailable — shift weight toward birdie upside; Cameron Young and Schauffele become more attractive
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